Date: February 04, 2010

Re: Hong Kong Fireworks

Hong Kong is one of my favorite places to visit, especially on Chinese New Year. Of course the inventors of fireworks, has the best fireworks. The spectacular display of fireworks found nowhere else in the world is best viewed from a boat in the Kowloon Harbor.

Merchants have a lesson to learn from Hong Kong tailors. Walk in and they'll greet you asking your choice of drinks, soft drinks or liquor. Drink in hand first, then look around. I could get drunk shopping.

Hong Kong unfortunately is going to be a major trouble spot in the coming years. You should read my previous ramblings about demographics real estate to understand this further.

Here's the demographic chart of Hong Kong. It is UGLY and will hit Hong Kong's real estate market hard.

The two major banks in Hong Kong are HSBC and Standard Chartered... both good stocks to short in the coming years. Before the British hand over of Hong Kong to China, Hong Kong became a money center with a very favorable tax structure. Singapore has grown as the money center. As the USA imposes the Writ of Assistance, money has moved from Switzerland and the Caribbean to Singapore. But I'd avoid keeping it in Singapore branches of HSBC or Standard Chartered.

The cycle repeats. Interesting see the 235 year cycle unfold. The American Revolution began as a result of the Writ of Assistance imposed by the British. It was not the Boston Tea Party or a tax revolt that triggered the American Revolution. On another cycle, as European countries default on its debt, money is moving to the US Dollar.

(The other cycles and technical analysis which is not going to be public is continued in the members only newsletter.)